Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy stance over the next three months hinges on decisions at FOMC meetings scheduled for mid-March, late April, and mid-June 2026. Each meeting will determine whether the upper bound of the target federal funds rate moves higher, lower, or remains unchanged. A qualifying cut requires the new upper bound to fall below its prior level; a qualifying hike requires it to rise. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect no rate changes across all three sessions, implying confidence in a held policy rate through mid-June.

Comparable periods of extended policy holds are instructive. Between December 2023 and June 2024, the Fed maintained rates at 5.25–5.50% across five consecutive meetings before cutting in September. That pause reflected persistent inflation concerns and labour-market resilience. Current market pricing reflects similar expectations: if inflation remains sticky and employment stable, the Fed may defer action. Conversely, the 2020–2021 period saw rapid successive hikes once tightening commenced, demonstrating how quickly consensus can shift once economic conditions trigger policy pivots.

Traders should monitor February and March inflation data releases, employment reports, and Fed communications for signals of economic deterioration or persistent price pressures. The 17 March FOMC meeting follows the February jobs report and PCE inflation figures. Regulatory accessibility varies: under German GlüStV rules, retail traders face stricter position limits on derivative-linked markets; US CFTC oversight applies to certain prediction market operators; and no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure allows smaller traders to participate without full identity verification, though settlement and withdrawal may require compliance documentation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.