Ethereum price on May 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle close price at noon ET on 23 May 2026. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price bracket or minimal trading activity; historical Ethereum volatility—ranging from sub-$1,000 to over $4,800 in recent cycles—suggests wide settlement possibilities across multiple brackets. The settlement mechanism ties directly to Binance's published candle data, making execution risk minimal provided the exchange remains operational and the trading pair remains listed.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility varies by jurisdiction. Under Germany's GlüStV (gambling licensing framework), prediction markets on cryptocurrency prices face stricter oversight than traditional derivatives; traders in that region may encounter platform restrictions. US CFTC authority over Ethereum price prediction markets remains contested, though the agency has signalled intent to regulate crypto derivatives more closely. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure—a common threshold—effectively exclude larger position-takers from anonymous participation, concentrating liquidity among verified accounts and institutional traders.

Catalysts affecting ETH price through May 2026 include Ethereum protocol upgrades, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, and regulatory announcements from the SEC or CFTC regarding spot ETH ETFs or derivative trading rules. Bitcoin's directional bias historically drives Ethereum correlation; major moves in BTC often precede ETH repricing within hours. Settlement timing at noon ET aligns with US market open, when volatility typically peaks and institutional flow becomes visible on major exchanges.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.