LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The North American Challengers League Playoffs upper bracket semifinal between Supernova and Conviction is scheduled for 22 May 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. This best-of-three match determines which team advances to the final bracket stage of the regional qualifying circuit for League of Legends professional competition. The 0% crowd probability reflects either minimal trading activity or strong consensus that one team will not participate, though the settlement window extends to 23 May at 04:00 UTC, allowing for schedule delays within the standard 24-hour window.

Regulatory treatment of this market varies by jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV provisions, esports prediction markets on non-professional league matches (Challengers League sits below LEC tier) face stricter licensing requirements than established professional circuits. US CFTC oversight applies if the platform operates with US-accessible infrastructure; binary sports derivatives typically fall outside CFTC commodity jurisdiction but remain subject to state-level gambling law. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 USD per user per calendar year do so under safe harbour provisions in certain jurisdictions, though this threshold applies to aggregate exposure rather than individual market positions—meaning a trader could place multiple bets within that cap without identity verification.

Key catalysts include roster confirmation announcements from both organisations, which typically occur 48–72 hours before playoff matches, and any official schedule revisions from Riot Games' Challengers administration. Recent esports betting volatility has centred on last-minute player substitutions and technical delays; monitor official NACL social channels and team statements for withdrawal or lineup changes that could trigger the 50-50 tie-resolution clause if the match is postponed beyond 29 May.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.