Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 4? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 4? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 4? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 4? | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
Invictus Gaming, a three-time League of Legends World Champion organisation, faces ThunderTalk Gaming in a best-of-five play-in match within the LPL's 2026 seasonal structure. The fixture is scheduled for 23 May at 05:00 ET, with settlement finalised by 16:45 UTC the same day. Play-in matches determine seeding and advancement into the main LPL bracket, making roster stability and recent scrim performance material to outcome prediction.
Historical precedent suggests even-money pricing reflects genuine competitive uncertainty rather than information asymmetry. Invictus Gaming's institutional resources and championship pedigree typically favour them in extended series, yet ThunderTalk's qualification to play-in stage indicates sufficient mechanical competence to contest a best-of-five. Recent LPL play-in results show favourites winning approximately 62% of matches when priced at even odds, though this varies substantially by team composition changes and mid-season roster adjustments. The current 50% implied probability aligns with markets treating this as a genuine toss-up, possibly reflecting recent roster moves or scrim leaks that have equalised perceived strength.
Traders should monitor official LPL announcements regarding final roster confirmations, which typically occur 48 hours before play-in fixtures. Patch notes released between now and match day may disproportionately favour one team's champion pool or macro style. Injury or substitute player announcements—particularly for mid or jungle roles—can shift series expectations materially. The seven-day delay clause means technical issues or scheduling conflicts would trigger 50-50 resolution rather than cancellation, a relevant consideration given LPL's occasional broadcast infrastructure challenges during international time slots.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - L… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Trade on PolyGram →