Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 95% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 90% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 85.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 90.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 95.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
Market context
The underlying event is a best-of-two Dota 2 match between REKONIX and Team Nemesis at the Esports World Cup 2026, scheduled for 12 July 2026 in Group C. REKONIX (Indonesia, world rank 75) faces Team Nemesis (Singapore-based, Philippines team, world rank 74) in a contest that has already settled with a 100% YES crowd-implied probability for the “more markets” outcome, reflecting the event’s completion and the certainty that ancillary betting lines will resolve [1][4][7].
Historically, prediction markets tied to completed esports matches with confirmed ancillary outcomes—such as map counts, total rounds, or player stats—settle at 100% once the main result is official and no dispute exists. Comparable cases from the 2024–2025 Esports World Cup cycles show that when the primary match concludes without controversy and the platform confirms all sub-markets are valid, the crowd probability converges to certainty, as seen in prior BO2 and BO3 Dota 2 events where “more markets” resolved immediately post-match [1][6].
Traders should monitor the official Esports World Cup 2026 results page for final score confirmation and any platform notices regarding settlement delays or data discrepancies. While the match is listed as upcoming in some schedules, the 100% probability indicates the result is already known and verified by the market operator; any late announcement from ESL or the tournament organiser could trigger a settlement update if new evidence emerges [1][2][7].
Methodology
This overview of Dota 2: REKONIX vs Team Nemesis - More Markets reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Tax UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Tax UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Tax UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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