Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| Any Player Rampage | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Match Winner | 70% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 90.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Execration (+1.5) | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
PlayTime and Execration are due to meet in a best-of-three playoff series at Games of the Future, and the current 0% YES price sits against a published start time of 05:00 UTC on 2 August, which is the key operational reference for whether the market can settle normally or drift into the event-specific 50-50 rules if the match is not completed. The accessibility angle matters here: under German GlüStV, participation in unlicensed online gambling-style products can trigger strict restrictions, while US CFTC reach is relevant because prediction-market activity involving event outcomes may fall within US regulatory scrutiny depending on platform structure and user location. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” framing means a user can usually access the market without immediate identity checks up to that threshold, but it does not remove jurisdictional restrictions or change how settlement is determined.
For context, the better historical read is that this pairing has not built a long public rivalry in the same lineup, while older match records lean towards Execration in prior encounters. Strafe lists PlayTime as the crowd favourite with 86.7% of votes, but that is a community signal rather than a binding price benchmark, and earlier bookmaker-style pages have also shown Execration as the shorter-priced side in comparable matchups. That mix is useful for interpreting a 0% YES market: it usually reflects either a stale listing, a thin book, or an unresolved feed issue rather than a genuine impossibility. Recent schedule pages and live-score listings are the main dependency to watch because any delay, rescheduling, or match-state ambiguity can affect whether the market resolves on the result or the fallback 50-50 outcome.[2][5][11][14]
The immediate catalysts are straightforward: confirmation that the series starts on time, that both teams remain in the playoff bracket, and that the official result feed is updated without interruption. Hawk.live and Strafe both place the match on 2 August at 05:00 UTC in Round 1 of the playoffs, so traders should watch for any bracket correction, walkover notice, or broadcast change before the opening map. A recent stream listing also shows live coverage being organised around the fixture, which is a practical sign that organisers expected it to go ahead on schedule.[1][2][5]
Methodology
This overview of Dota 2: PlayTime vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Tax UK has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Tax UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Tax UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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