Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is a best-of-three Dota 2 qualifier match between MOUZ and Yellow Submarine in the Europe Closed Qualifier playoffs, with the market set to resolve on the team that wins the series. A crowd-implied probability of 0% YES is best read as a market data anomaly or a very thin book rather than a literal forecast of zero, because this pairing has recent head-to-head history and both sides have played each other in other European events, including Yellow Submarine wins over MOUZ in 2025 and 2026 listed in match databases.[1][2]

For context, short-run qualifier markets often move more on bracket timing and roster confirmation than on broad team reputation. Yellow Submarine have had mixed overall recent results, with one team database showing 0% wins over their last three matches and 39 wins from 78 over the past year, which underlines why traders should separate stale form from event-specific signals.[6] Under German GlüStV rules, access can be restricted for operators serving the German market, while US CFTC jurisdiction is relevant because event-contract style markets can fall within US derivatives scrutiny depending on structure and venue; for users, “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means smaller withdrawals or exposure may be possible before identity verification is triggered, but it does not remove venue-specific limits, geofencing, or compliance checks.

The main catalysts are simple: whether the match actually starts on schedule, whether the official bracket is updated, and whether either team fields a changed roster or receives a walkover. The listed start time was 08:00 UTC on 22 June 2026, so any delay, cancellation, or unresolved partial series outcome matters directly for settlement, since an unplayed or indefinitely delayed match can push the market to 50-50 under the rules.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.