Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Counter-Strike 2 lower bracket final between Sashi Esport and Inner Circle Esports in Super DraculaN Group A, originally set for 25 June at 2:00 PM ET. The match has already concluded, with Inner Circle Esports winning 2–1, meaning the market resolves to "Inner Circle Esports" and the current 0% YES probability for Sashi Esport is factually accurate given the settled outcome[1][5].

Historical precedents for similar esports markets show that once a match result is confirmed on official scoreboards, prediction markets rapidly align with the factual winner, rendering any lingering probability for the loser negligible[1][4]. Comparable cases from the 2025 Counter-Strike season demonstrate that markets do not retain significant uncertainty post-settlement, especially when third-party aggregators like Sofascore and Kalshi confirm the final score within hours of the event[5].

Traders should monitor official tournament announcements for any potential match cancellations or delays beyond the seven-day window, though none are expected given the result is already final[6]. Recent coverage from GosuGamers confirms the match took place on schedule with no reported disruptions, reinforcing that the settlement is definitive and no further catalysts will alter the outcome[6]. The German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks treat such settled esports markets as non-regulated once results are public, while the "no-KYC up to $1,500" clause ensures this market remains accessible to UK traders without identity verification, provided the platform complies with local anti-money laundering rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.