MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by 2025?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The event is whether Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, disposes of any part of its Bitcoin treasury before the end of 2025. The market’s 0% implied probability should be read cautiously: the company has built its equity story around holding and adding to Bitcoin, and recent disclosures showed 714,644 BTC on the balance sheet as of 8 February 2026, with an average purchase price of about $76,056 per coin. That scale matters because even a small sale would be highly visible in company filings and on-chain flows, making the resolution source relatively clear if it happens.

Comparable cases point to how unusual a sale would be. Strategy’s long-running pattern has been accumulation funded through capital raises, not distribution of reserves, and recent coverage has focused more on financing and index inclusion risk than on treasury liquidation. CryptoBriefing noted an 87.5% market probability of Bitcoin sales by December 2026 in a separate market, showing that traders do not treat sales as impossible, but the timing here is tighter and the current 2025 window is already well advanced. For accessibility, the market sits within the practical reach of non-EU users; under German GlüStV-style framing, no-KYC access up to about €1,500 is often the relevant threshold discussed for small-stake participation, while US CFTC jurisdiction remains a separate regulatory consideration for any US-facing access route.

Watch for board-level treasury commentary, 8-K filings, and any explicit language around debt covenants, liquidity, or index pressure. Recent reporting has highlighted the risk of forced selling only in a stress scenario, not as a base case, while Strategy’s own update cycle and Bitcoin price swings remain the main dependencies. If the company does sell, it is more likely to appear first in formal disclosure or on-chain movements than in casual commentary, so market-moving catalysts are any statement that changes the company’s long-held “buy and hold” posture.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.