Fed Decision in June?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Open Market Committee will convene in June 2026 to set monetary policy. This market resolves based on whether the upper bound of the target federal funds rate changes from its pre-meeting level, measured in basis points and rounded to the nearest 25bp increment. The current 0% crowd probability reflects market consensus that no rate adjustment will occur at that meeting, though the FOMC retains discretion to hold, raise, or cut rates depending on economic conditions.

Historical precedent shows the FOMC typically signals rate decisions weeks in advance through communications and economic projections, making surprise moves rare. Between 2022 and 2024, the Committee executed a sustained tightening cycle followed by cuts, establishing a pattern where forward guidance substantially constrains unexpected outcomes. The June 2026 meeting sits in a period where inflation trajectory, labour market strength, and geopolitical factors will determine the baseline case. Traders should monitor May employment data, Consumer Price Index releases, and any FOMC communications in the months preceding the meeting, as these typically anchor expectations.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under CFTC jurisdiction in the United States and must comply with German GlüStV provisions for EU-based participants. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 applies to initial positions on this contract, meaning traders can establish exposure below that amount without identity verification, though larger positions or cumulative trading activity may trigger enhanced due diligence. Settlement occurs 17 June 2026, aligning with the post-meeting announcement window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.