What price will Ethereum hit on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Ethereum's price on 13 June 2026 remains unknown, but the settlement window closes the following day, creating a narrow observation period for price discovery. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific price range or minimal trading activity in this particular contract. Historical volatility in Ethereum—which has ranged from under $100 to over $4,800 across its lifetime—means any single-day price target carries substantial uncertainty. Comparable single-day price prediction markets on major cryptocurrencies have typically seen meaningful probability shifts only when external catalysts emerge; absent such events, flat probabilities often reflect genuine difficulty in forecasting intraday or daily moves rather than consensus certainty.

Traders monitoring this market should track regulatory announcements from the US CFTC and EU regulators, as enforcement actions or clarifications on cryptocurrency derivatives classification can trigger sharp price movements. The German GlüStV (gambling licensing framework) has begun capturing crypto-derivative platforms, potentially affecting liquidity pools and trading volumes across European exchanges. For UK-based participants, the no-KYC threshold of £1,200 (approximately $1,500) applies to certain spot transactions but not derivatives; this market's settlement depends on exchange price feeds, which typically require full KYC verification. Scheduled events—Ethereum network upgrades, macroeconomic data releases, or major institutional announcements—between now and June 2026 will shape volatility expectations. Current market depth and bid-ask spreads on this contract will indicate whether liquidity exists to support meaningful price discovery as the settlement window approaches.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.