Ethereum above ___ on May 15?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Ethereum's closing price on the Binance ETH/USDT pair at precisely 12:00 noon Eastern Time on 15 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC that same day, providing a four-hour window after the resolution timestamp for final verification against Binance's recorded candle data. Resolution depends entirely on Binance's published pricing, not spot prices from other exchanges or trading pairs, which can diverge materially during volatile periods or system outages.

The 100% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that Ethereum will trade above the specified threshold at that particular moment. Historical precedent suggests such certainty typically indicates either a very low price threshold relative to current spot levels, or reflects confidence in Ethereum's medium-term trajectory through May 2026. Comparable single-point-in-time price markets have resolved consistently when tied to major exchange candle data, though intraday volatility and flash crashes have occasionally created resolution disputes on other platforms.

Traders should monitor Ethereum's regulatory environment through early 2026, particularly developments from the US CFTC regarding spot market oversight and any announcements affecting Binance's operational status in key jurisdictions. The German GlüStV framework and evolving KYC requirements across exchanges may influence trading volumes and price discovery mechanisms leading into May. For traders accessing this market with holdings under $1,500, no-KYC pathways remain available on certain platforms, though this does not affect Binance's own resolution data or the underlying price mechanics.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.