Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 31 May 2026 will be recorded from the Binance BTC/USDT pair's 1-minute candle close. The market resolves to "No" if that data point cannot be obtained, and brackets resolve upward if the price falls exactly on a boundary. Settlement occurs after the close of that specific candle, making this a precise, time-stamped event tied to a single exchange's published feed rather than an aggregate or delayed reference.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility varies by jurisdiction. The German GlüStV (gambling licensing framework) treats prediction markets as wagering products requiring operator licensing; UK users face no equivalent blanket restriction under current FCA guidance, though the regulator continues monitoring crypto derivatives. US CFTC oversight applies to leveraged or margined crypto contracts, but spot-price prediction markets occupy a greyer zone. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure typically rely on this threshold to avoid triggering full anti-money-laundering registration, though enforcement remains inconsistent. Traders should verify their own jurisdiction's stance before participating, as regulatory clarity on prediction markets remains fragmented across major markets.

Bitcoin's price trajectory between now and May 2026 will respond to macroeconomic policy shifts, institutional adoption milestones, and spot exchange-traded fund flows. The Federal Reserve's interest-rate path, any major central bank digital currency announcements, and regulatory developments in the US and EU—particularly around MiCA compliance in Europe—will shape volatility. Halving events, mining difficulty adjustments, and large on-chain movements also historically influence directional bias. The 0% implied probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific price range or low liquidity; traders should examine the bracket structure to identify where consensus actually concentrates.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.