Bitcoin above ___ on May 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price on the Binance BTC/USDT pair at noon Eastern Time on 16 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data. The 0% crowd probability reflects either an extremely high strike price relative to expected spot levels, or minimal trading activity in this particular contract. Resolution depends entirely on Binance's published candle data, not other exchanges or trading pairs, which can occasionally diverge during volatile periods or system issues.

Regulatory frameworks affecting Bitcoin trading accessibility merit consideration. Germany's GlüStV (gambling and betting regulation) has created compliance pressures on crypto derivatives platforms, whilst the US CFTC maintains jurisdiction over Bitcoin futures and derivatives regardless of exchange location. Most major platforms including Binance enforce KYC requirements for accounts exceeding certain thresholds, though some permit non-KYC trading up to approximately $1,500 notional value daily—a constraint that may limit participation in this market depending on individual account status and jurisdiction.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Bitcoin's macroeconomic drivers through May 2026, including Federal Reserve policy signals, inflation data releases, and institutional adoption announcements. The specific noon ET timestamp creates dependency on intraday volatility and US market hours trading patterns rather than 24-hour global price discovery. Historical Bitcoin price action shows noon ET often coincides with US equity market open volatility, which can create sharp directional moves within single-minute candles. Recent precedent from 2024-2025 suggests Bitcoin's daily ranges frequently exceed $2,000, making precise strike-price resolution outcomes highly sensitive to the exact timing and market microstructure at that specific moment.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.