Bitcoin price on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the final one-minute closing price of Bitcoin on Binance at noon Eastern Time on 27 June 2026, which determines whether the market resolves to "Yes" or "No". Current crowd-implied probability sits at just 2% for the "Yes" outcome, reflecting a near-consensus that the price will not exceed the specified threshold.

Historical precedents show that similar binary price-range markets have consistently resolved to "No" when thresholds sit far above prevailing valuations. In early 2026, Bitcoin fluctuated between roughly $60,000 and $73,000, peaking at $97,860 in January before retreating, while its all-time high of $126,198 was reached in October 2025[6][7]. Options traders betting on a $300,000 price by this date are widely regarded as taking a near-impossible long shot, with experts citing $150,000 as a more plausible short-term target despite soaring global liquidity[4].

Traders should monitor upcoming US CFTC announcements on crypto derivatives, German GlüStV regulatory updates affecting digital asset services, and any shifts in KYC thresholds that could alter market accessibility. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" provision significantly broadens participation for retail users in jurisdictions with strict identity requirements, potentially increasing liquidity in such binary markets. Recent reporting from Fortune notes that while some models project Bitcoin reaching $700,000 by 2030, conservative estimates remain closer to $300,000, underscoring the gap between speculative optimism and current price realities[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.