Bitcoin price on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the Binance BTC/USDT spot price at noon ET on 25 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle close. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific price bracket or minimal trading activity; given the settlement window extends nearly eighteen months forward, sparse liquidity at this stage is typical for distant-dated Bitcoin contracts. Resolution depends entirely on Binance's published candle data, with ties resolved upward to the higher bracket.

Regulatory frameworks governing Bitcoin spot-price prediction markets vary sharply by jurisdiction. The German GlüStV (gambling licensing statute) treats prediction markets as wagering contracts requiring state approval; most unregistered platforms operating in Germany face enforcement risk. US CFTC oversight of Bitcoin derivatives has intensified since 2021, though spot-price prediction markets occupy a grey zone distinct from regulated futures. UK-domiciled platforms typically fall under Gambling Commission purview if they accept UK residents. No-KYC thresholds up to $1,500 per transaction—common on decentralised exchanges—do not exempt prediction market operators from customer identification rules; this market's accessibility therefore hinges on the operator's jurisdiction and licensing status rather than trade size.

Bitcoin's volatility and macroeconomic sensitivity mean May 2026 outcomes depend on Federal Reserve policy trajectories, geopolitical shocks, and institutional adoption trends unfolding over the next eighteen months. Recent spot-ETF approvals in the US and EU regulatory clarity on MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) have reduced tail-risk scenarios but not eliminated them. Traders should monitor central bank communications, corporate treasury announcements, and any major exchange insolvencies or regulatory crackdowns, all of which have historically moved spot prices by 10–30% within weeks.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.