Bitcoin price on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin is trading around the mid-$60,000s, so the real event for this market is whether the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute close at noon Eastern lands above or below the relevant bracket on the settlement date. Binance’s live BTC/USDT spot page showed about $64,082, while its own Bitcoin price page showed roughly $64,044 at the time of the latest snapshot, which places the contract in a range where modest intraday volatility can matter more than any long-term narrative.[8][7]

The current 0% YES implies a very low crowd expectation that the noon ET close will clear the specified threshold, but that reading should be treated cautiously because it is a bracketed price market rather than a binary “up or down” bet. Comparable daily Bitcoin markets on prediction platforms have shown materially positive odds even when spot was broadly stable, which underlines how fast sentiment can move around funding, spot flows, and US session liquidity.[1][6] For accessibility, “no-KYC up to $1,500” means some users may be able to trade without identity verification only within a small withdrawal or activity cap; above that, KYC is typically required, and platform access can still be shaped by jurisdictional checks.

Regulatory and tax framing matters here because German GlüStV rules can restrict the offering or advertising of gambling-style products to German residents, while the US CFTC has broad reach over derivatives and event-contract activity that touches US persons or US-linked venues. Traders should also watch any exchange-specific maintenance notices, ETF flow headlines, macro releases, and Bitcoin spot volatility around the US noon close, since this market keys off a single Binance candle rather than a daily average.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.