Bitcoin price on June 17?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 17 June 2026 will be determined by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The market settles to "No" if data is unavailable or unverifiable from Binance's official feed. Settlement occurs after the window closes on 17 June 2026 at 16:00 UTC, allowing for any intraday volatility to be captured at the precise noon snapshot.

Regulatory frameworks governing Bitcoin trading access differ substantially across jurisdictions, affecting who can participate in price-discovery markets like this one. Germany's GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag) classifies certain prediction markets as gambling, restricting participation for German residents unless the operator holds appropriate licensing. The US CFTC maintains jurisdiction over Bitcoin derivatives and cash-settled contracts, though spot-price prediction markets occupy a grey zone depending on whether they're classified as options or wagers. Many platforms enforce KYC (know-your-customer) verification thresholds; positions under $1,500 often bypass full identity verification, lowering friction for smaller traders but creating compliance complexity for operators managing mixed-jurisdiction user bases.

Bitcoin's price trajectory into mid-2026 will hinge on macroeconomic policy shifts, particularly US Federal Reserve rate decisions and inflation data releases scheduled through Q2 2026, alongside institutional adoption announcements and any material regulatory clarity from the SEC or CFTC. Historical volatility around FOMC meetings and CPI releases suggests intraday swings of 2–5% are routine; the noon ET snapshot captures one moment within that daily range, making timing-dependent catalysts—earnings calls, geopolitical events, or exchange-traded fund flows—material to final settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.