Bitcoin price on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at noon ET on 11 June 2026. The 0% crowd probability reflects the extreme difficulty of predicting a specific price point across a two-year horizon; Bitcoin's historical volatility and the breadth of possible macroeconomic scenarios between now and mid-2026 render pinpoint forecasts unreliable. Resolution hinges on a single data point from Binance's official feed, with ties resolved upward to the higher bracket.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility varies by jurisdiction. In Germany, the GlüStV framework classifies Bitcoin derivatives and prediction markets as gaming products subject to licensing; traders in that territory face restrictions on unregulated platforms. The US CFTC maintains broad authority over Bitcoin futures and derivatives, though prediction markets occupy a grey zone depending on whether they function as wagering or financial instruments. Many platforms offer no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure, a threshold designed to sidestep enhanced customer due diligence requirements under FinCEN guidance; this market's settlement value will determine whether individual positions breach that ceiling.

Catalysts affecting Bitcoin's price trajectory include Federal Reserve policy announcements, major institutional adoption milestones, and geopolitical developments affecting energy costs for mining. The 18-month window encompasses multiple US Treasury auctions, potential legislative shifts on digital asset regulation, and cyclical patterns in Bitcoin's historical halvings. Traders should monitor Binance's operational status and any changes to its data feeds, as technical disruptions or exchange policy shifts could affect settlement certainty.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.