Claude Mythos released on…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic has not yet released a model officially branded as "Claude Mythos" to the general public. The market settles on the date such a release occurs before 30 June 2026, or resolves NO if no Mythos-branded model reaches public availability by that deadline. The current 0% probability reflects the absence of any announced timeline or roadmap from Anthropic for a product bearing this specific name.

Comparable precedent exists in how Anthropic has named and released prior models. Claude 3 family releases (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus) followed a staged rollout pattern beginning in March 2024, with public availability arriving weeks after initial announcements. However, no Mythos nomenclature has appeared in Anthropic's official communications, investor updates, or product documentation since the company's founding. The naming convention itself remains speculative; traders inferring a Mythos release must rely on indirect signals such as job postings, research publications, or strategic partnerships rather than explicit company statements.

Regulatory accessibility for this market varies by jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets on technology product launches face classification scrutiny; UK traders benefit from Polymarket's established FCA guidance on binary event contracts. US CFTC reach extends to American traders, though the agency has not issued specific guidance on technology-release prediction markets. The $1,500 no-KYC threshold applies to aggregate positions across certain platforms, meaning traders can establish positions without full identity verification up to that notional limit, though settlement and withdrawal procedures remain subject to platform compliance protocols. Traders should verify their own jurisdictional obligations before engaging.

Methodology

This page reviews Claude Mythos released on…? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.