Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Tehran's primary commercial hub, must record at least one aircraft takeoff by 11:59 PM ET on 1 July 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The resolution hinges on actual wheels-up time logged by FlightAware or Iranian aviation authorities, not gate pushback or operational announcements. IKA has experienced extended closures and capacity constraints in recent years, including disruptions following regional tensions and infrastructure limitations, yet has consistently resumed operations with scheduled departures once reopened.

Historical precedent suggests that major international airports rarely remain completely non-operational for multi-year periods. Even during the most severe disruptions to Iranian aviation—including sanctions-related flight restrictions and temporary security closures—IKA has maintained some departure activity within 12-month windows. The 100% crowd probability reflects confidence that a single departure within the 18-month settlement window is virtually certain, given that even minimal commercial or state-operated flight activity would satisfy the condition.

Traders should monitor Iranian Civil Aviation Organisation announcements regarding operational status, sanctions developments affecting flight permissions, and published airline schedules. Recent reporting from Reuters and aviation tracking services indicates IKA maintains baseline operational capacity, though international flight frequency remains constrained by geopolitical factors. Any formal reopening declaration, resumption of scheduled international routes, or even cargo operations would likely trigger departures. The market's accessibility under UK regulatory frameworks (GlüStV-equivalent oversight) and CFTC reach considerations for non-KYC positions up to $1,500 USD remains standard for prediction markets on this platform, though traders should verify their own jurisdictional status.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.