In this guide
Key takeaway: Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market where participants acquire YES/NO shares on actual occurrences using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Automated smart contracts manage all settlement operations.
What is the mechanism behind Polymarket? Fundamentally, Polymarket operates as a prediction exchange: rather than wagering against a bookmaker's spread, you exchange positions with other participants who hold differing views on your forecast. Market valuations embody the aggregate probability judgement of all traders — continuously refreshed as fresh information emerges.
The basics: prediction markets
Prediction markets enable you to acquire shares representing possible outcomes. Each share yields $1 upon YES resolution, or $0 upon NO resolution. When you purchase a YES share for 40 cents ($0.40), you're asserting a 40% likelihood of that occurrence materialising. Success means your capital doubles; failure results in capital loss.
In contrast to conventional bookmakers, Polymarket operates without a built-in margin (the "vig"). Valuations emerge purely from the equilibrium between buyer and seller demand across the trader base.
How Polymarket uses blockchain
Polymarket operates atop the Polygon blockchain (a layer-2 scaling solution constructed above Ethereum). This infrastructure delivers:
- Complete transparency and on-chain auditability of all activity
- Autonomous execution of fund transfers, position exchanges, and disbursements via smart contracts
- Prevention of fund seizure or outcome manipulation by Polymarket operators
- Rapid settlement completion within minutes rather than extended periods
USDC: the currency of Polymarket
Polymarket trading exclusively utilises USDC (USD Coin), a stablecoin maintaining a 1:1 equivalence with the US dollar. Cryptocurrency price fluctuations pose no threat to your account stability — one USDC consistently equals one dollar in value.
How markets resolve
Upon determination of an event's conclusion, Polymarket engages the UMA Oracle (Universal Market Access) for market settlement. An appointed "proposer" presents the determined outcome; a 2-hour challenge period follows; absent objection, settlement becomes binding. Contested determinations proceed to UMA token-holder arbitration — a community-governed resolution mechanism.
Getting started on Polymarket
- Establish your account — register via email and fulfil KYC verification requirements
- Transfer USDC funds — utilise MoonPay, direct bank deposit, or transfer from your existing cryptocurrency holdings
- Explore available markets — spanning elections, athletics, blockchain developments, entertainment and additional categories
- Acquire shares — select YES or NO and specify your investment amount
- Manage positions — liquidate your holdings whenever you choose prior to market conclusion
PolyGram streamlines this entire workflow through an optimised mobile experience and straightforward email-based authentication. Start trading on PolyGram →
Why Polymarket prices are accurate
Prediction markets have repeatedly surpassed conventional polling methodologies and specialist judgements in forecast precision. Throughout the 2024 US election period, Polymarket's probability assessments demonstrated superior accuracy relative to leading polling indices. The mechanism: financial incentives compel participants toward rigorous, unbiased evaluation.