In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in trading volume and breadth of available markets. Kalshi stands out as the sole CFTC-authorised option for American participants. Manifold excels for recreational forecasting without financial stakes. Across Europe and other jurisdictions, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Most liquid markets in politics and digital assets |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Spanning elections, digital currencies, athletics, research, entertainment |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Typical spreads range 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (blockchain wallet required) |
| Access | Worldwide (excluding US). KYC verification required |
| Best for | Professional participants with analytical advantage |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction market operator. It grants access to US-based participants who cannot use Polymarket and has expanded substantially. Trade-offs include narrower market selection relative to Polymarket, alongside regulatory constraints that restrict certain contract categories.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using fictional currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. It serves as an excellent platform for honing forecasting abilities and collaborative community estimation — though it does not generate real returns. The ecosystem includes more than 10,000 user-generated markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus collects and synthesises probabilistic estimates from its expert community. Without monetary stakes, it remains invaluable for establishing forecasting credentials and analysing global risks. Academic institutions regularly reference its data when evaluating forecast quality.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues processing enormous sums across sports and political wagering annually. Strengths include conventional currency support, FCA oversight, and substantial sports market depth. Limitations encompass 2-5% commission on net returns, absence of blockchain-based markets, and comparatively restricted political market breadth versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants outside the US seeking maximum trading depth and market selection: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines blockchain interaction whilst preserving full access to Polymarket's complete order book. Start trading on PolyGram →