In this guide
With the 2028 US presidential election still more than two years on the horizon, prediction markets have begun establishing prices across the field. Republican succession scenarios following Trump's constitutional ineligibility and Democratic primary matchups are both seeing substantial trading volume. Those who identify mispriced outcomes ahead of candidate consolidation stand to benefit from early positioning.
Republican 2028 Presidential Market
Trump's third-term bar leaves the Republican nomination wide open:
- J.D. Vance: ~25-30% — Incumbent vice-presidential position, Trump endorsement alignment
- Ron DeSantis: ~15-20% — Gubernatorial approval ratings, recovery from 2024 primary underperformance
- Nikki Haley: ~12-15% — Centrist coalition, international relations background
- Glenn Youngkin: ~7-10% — Two-term Virginia governor, entrepreneurial track record
- Josh Hawley: ~5-8% — Pro-labour market positioning
- Unknown candidate: ~15-20% — Sufficiently fragmented field permits late entrants
Democratic 2028 Presidential Market
- Kamala Harris: ~20-25% — Leading contender, party establishment backing
- Pete Buttigieg: ~12-15% — Cabinet-level profile from transportation portfolio
- Gavin Newsom: ~10-13% — West Coast governor with established national presence
- Josh Shapiro: ~8-12% — Competitive state executive from Pennsylvania
- Unknown candidate: ~25-30% — Sufficient timeline permits emergence of fresh contenders
2028 General Election Probabilities
- Republican wins presidency 2028: ~48-52% (statistical parity at this early juncture)
- Democrat wins presidency 2028: ~48-52%
Why Trade 2028 Markets Now
Participation in 2028 markets at this stage provides:
- Greater price volatility (elevated uncertainty translates to outsized profit potential for prescient positioning)
- Extended holding periods as fresh data and developments materialise
- Entry points before significant announcements or developments reshape market valuations
Drawback: nascent markets exhibit heightened sensitivity to surprise developments and candidate entry or withdrawal announcements.
FAQ
- Can a sitting VP (Vance) win the Republican nomination?
- Historical precedent shows vice-presidents mount credible nomination efforts without assured success. Bush Sr (1988) inherited Reagan's mantle; Gore's 2000 vice-presidential status proved insufficient. Current market pricing reflects Vance's frontrunner status whilst acknowledging genuine competition.
- When do 2028 nomination markets resolve?
- Each party's nomination contract settles following the respective national convention — conventionally scheduled for July or August 2028.
- Are there markets for specific primary states?
- Individual state primary and caucus markets — including Iowa and New Hampshire — typically commence trading 6-12 months preceding those contests — consult PolyGram's political markets catalogue for current availability.